Election Predictions 2016 pt 1
Only three more days and we should have a conclusion to one of the most vile of federal elections. How nice it will be to get back to listening to people bitch about the crappy job congress and the president are doing. No more sitting through mindless interviews with party demagogues that parrot sound bites and sling mud rather than answering the question. Thank Dog! I wonder if the CDC tracks the incidence of suicides during POTUS election cycles?
So, in follow up to my previous issue of whether polls are accurate predictors of election outcomes, today I reviewed the realclearpolitics cumulative poll as well as the 5 polls used by the partisan-controlled CPD.
As of Nov 5, three day pre-election, or the antearmageddon if you will, the RCP cumulative poll tells us that the election is still a complete toss-up with Clinton enjoying a mere 2.2% percent lead over Trump. In total by candidate and percent is: Clinton – 44.9%, Trump – 42.7%, Johnson – 4.8%, and Stein – 1.8%. The Utah spoiler, McMullin isn’t included because he isn’t on enough ballots. However, Utah-specific polls show Evan McMullin tied with Clinton.
The five polls that are used to determine participation in the debates also show Clinton enjoying a 2-5% lead over Trump.
ABC-Washington Post: Clinton – 48%, Trump – 43%, Johnson – 4%, and Stein – 2%
CBS-New York Times: Clinton – 45%, Trump – 42%, Johnson – 5%, and Stein – 4%
CNN-Opinion Research Corporation: Clinton – 49%, Trump – 44%, Johnson – 3%, and Stein 2%
Fox News: Clinton – 45%, Trump – 43%, Johnson – 5%, and Stein – 2%
NBC-Wall Street Journal: Clinton – 44%, Trump – 40%, Johnson – 6%, and Stein – 2%
Part 2 of this post will display the actual election results for comparison.
I’m a proud Johnson supporter but have little doubts that he is not going to win the popular vote. What I would love to see this election is three things: Johnson and Stein each earning >5% of the popular vote; anyone other than Clinton or Trump winning an electoral college vote; and keeping the balance of power separate between the legislative and executive offices. If Johnson and Stein can each earn 5% of the national vote it would automatically qualify the Libertarian and Green parties 2020 ballot access and additional election funding. My preference is to see Johnson sweep New Mexico but would be completely happy if any outside candidate was to win any electoral college votes, even McMullin. Lastly, with both major party candidates considered vile and deplorable by the other party and both party’s plans to make bat-shit crazy changes, it is vital that we keep the two branches with real power in separate hands. Face it, regardless of whether Trump or Clinton wins, the next four years are going to be more of the same Washington dysfunction. Frankly, that is one reason I’m such a supporter of third-party candidates. Without the need to appease a party, independents and third party members of congress are the only voice there is to express moderate’s views and facilitate cooperation.
As with the importance of congressional and senate seat votes, local elections are equally, if not more, important. The actions of your local politicians make a substantially larger impact on your daily life than the feds. Prior to heading out to vote Tuesday, check the local ballot on-line, see what positions local leaders take, read the proposals, and show up prepared to make an informed decision.
Category: Politics
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